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中国工业与应用数学学会会刊
主管:中华人民共和国教育部
主办:西安交通大学
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

工程数学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 143-155.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2026.01.009cstr: 32411.14.cjem.CN61-1269/O1.2026.01.009

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基于POT模型的地震厚尾损失研究及风险评估

赵  煜1,2,  李娅妮1,2   

  1. 1. 兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,兰州 730020
    2. 甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心,兰州 730020
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-09 接受日期:2025-07-04 出版日期:2026-02-15 发布日期:2026-04-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金西部项目 (21XTJ004);兰州财经大学重点项目 (Lzufe2022B-005).

Study and Risk Assessment of Earthquake Thick Tail Losses Based on POT Modeling

ZHAO Yu1,2,  LI Yani1,2   

  1. 1. School of Statistics and Data Science, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020
    2. Center for Quantitative Analysis of Gansu Economic Development, Lanzhou 730020
  • Received:2024-05-09 Accepted:2025-07-04 Online:2026-02-15 Published:2026-04-15
  • Supported by:
    The National Social Science Foundation of China Western Project (21XTJ004); the Key Project of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics (Lzufe2022B-005).

摘要:

少数地震事件所引发的极端损失对人类社会造成了严重影响,因此,寻找一个能够较好地拟合这类厚尾数据的分布模型,评估极端风险并制定有效预防措施,对于降低其发生的频率和损失至关重要。以我国大陆1980$\sim$2022年间的历史震例为样本,运用基于广义帕累托分布的POT模型拟合地震厚尾损失,损失类型包括直接经济损失和人员伤亡,模型诊断结果表明其拟合效果良好。基于所估计的模型参数和历史数据,计算风险价值,得到不同置信度下,发生一次地震可能导致的最大直接经济损失额和人员伤亡数量。由历史震例中死亡和受伤人数的平均占比,又分别给出了发生一次地震可能造成的最多死亡人数和受伤人数。通过综合分析样本数据中三类损失超过不同置信水平下最大损失的情况,将地震风险区划分为三个等级,并提出了相应的预防措施,以期为相关部门提供一套科学的、可供选择的地震风险防范管理模式,以降低地震风险,确保人们的生命和财产安全。

关键词: 地震厚尾损失, POT模型, 损失分布, 风险度量, 广义帕累托分布

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the assessment of earthquake risks associated with extreme losses caused by seismic events. The accurate fitting of thick-tailed data, precise evaluation of extreme risks, and formulation of effective preventive measures are crucial in reducing the frequency and impact of such events. The study utilizes historical earthquake cases in mainland China from 1980 to 2022 as a representative sample. The POT model, based on the generalized Pareto distribution, is employed to fit the thick-tailed losses resulting from earthquakes. The model diagnostic results indicate a good fitting effect. By estimating the model parameters and analyzing historical data, the study calculates the Value at Risk (VaR) values, which represent the maximum potential direct economic losses and casualties at different confidence levels in the event of an earthquake. Moreover, the average percentage of deaths and injuries in historical cases is used to estimate the maximum number of fatalities and injuries resulting from an earthquake. Through a comprehensive analysis of the three types of losses surpassing the maximum loss at different confidence levels, a seismic risk zoning system is proposed, along with corresponding preventive measures. The aim is to provide the government with scientifically grounded options for earthquake risk prevention and management, thereby mitigating seismic risks and ensuring the safety of lives and properties.

Key words: earthquake thick-tail losses, POT model, loss distribution, risk measurement, generalized Pareto distribution

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