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中国工业与应用数学学会会刊
主管：中华人民共和国教育部
主办：西安交通大学
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1
工程数学学报

工程数学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 845-874.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2025.05.004cstr: 32411.14.cjem.CN61-1269/O1.2025.05.004

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新能源私人乘用车销量的灰色滚动预测研究

宋楠楠1,  李树良1,2,  龚  科2   

  1. 1. 重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院，重庆 400067
    2. 重庆交通大学经济与管理学院，重庆 400074
  • 收稿日期:2023-02-22 接受日期:2023-05-22 出版日期:2025-10-15 发布日期:2025-12-15
  • 通讯作者: 李树良 E-mail: lsl@ctbu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金 (24BTJ063).

Grey Rolling Prediction of New Energy Private Passenger Vehicle Sales

SONG Nannan1,  LI Shuliang1,2,  GONG Ke2   

  1. 1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067
    2. School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074
  • Received:2023-02-22 Accepted:2023-05-22 Online:2025-10-15 Published:2025-12-15
  • Contact: S. Li. E-mail address: lsl@ctbu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    The National Social Science Foundation of China (24BTJ063).

摘要：

新能源私人乘用车对完成碳达峰目标具有重要作用，对其销量进行科学、准确的预测是完成目标的基本前提。传统的新能源汽车灰色预测模型只考虑了历史数据的规律性，很少考虑新数据对未来趋势的重要影响，导致模型预测结果与定性结论间存在差异。为提高模型精度，减小误差，使用实数域分数阶灰色生成算子对三参数离散灰色预测模型优化，根据新信息优先原则并结合滚动机制构建三参数离散灰色滚动模型对中国新能源私人乘用车销量进行预测。结果表明：2030年新能源私人乘用车销量为684.95万辆，可完成碳达峰目标当年销量的88.15%，根据预测值提出促进销量的对策建议。

关键词: 新能源私人乘用车, 碳达峰, 三参数离散灰色预测模型, 实数阶灰色生成算子, 滚动预测

Abstract:

New energy private passenger vehicles play an important role in achieving the carbon peak target, and scientific and accurate prediction of sales volume is the basic prerequisite for achieving the target. The traditional grey prediction model for new energy vehicles only considers the regularity of historical data and rarely considers the significant impact of new energy vehicle sales data on future trends, resulting in differences between the model's prediction results and qualitative conclusions. To improve the accuracy of the model and reduce errors, this article uses the real number field fractional order grey generation operator to optimize the three-parameter discrete grey prediction model. Based on the principle of new information priority and combined with rolling mechanism, a three-parameter discrete grey rolling model is constructed to predict the sales of new energy private passenger vehicles in China. The results show that the sales of new energy private passenger vehicles in 2030 are 6.849~5 million units, which can achieve 88.15 of the carbon peak target for the current year. Based on the predicted values, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to promote sales.

Key words: new energy private passenger vehicles, carbon peak, grey three-parameter discrete prediction model, fractional order grey generation operator in real number field, rolling forecast

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