Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

Multi-stage Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Robust Portfolio Selection Model

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  • School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049

Received date: 2021-04-30

  Accepted date: 2021-08-27

  Online published: 2021-08-27

Supported by

The National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFA1004000); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11991023; 12371324).

Abstract

The estimation of uncertainty sets in traditional multi-stage distributionally robust portfolio selection models is a challenging problem. This paper applys the Bayesian reinforcement learning technique to dynamically update the first two order moments in the uncertainty sets of a multi-stage distributionally robust model. We study the mean-worst case robust CVaR model in the Bayesian reinforcement learning framework. We propose a two-level decomposition solution framework by combining dynamic programming techniques and the progressive hedging algorithm. The lower level finds optimal policies of sub-models with given model parameters by solving a series of second-order cone programming problems. While the upper level finds an implementable policy satisfying non-anticipation constraints by using Bayes'~law. Numerical results in the US stock market illustrate the superior out-of-sample investment performance of the multi-stage Bayesian reinforcement learning robust portfolio selection model.

Cite this article

LI Roujia, DUAN Qihong, FENG Zhuohang, LIU Jia . Multi-stage Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Robust Portfolio Selection Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics, 2024 , 41(2) : 232 -244 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2024.02.003

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