African swine fever, which began to be introduced to China in August 2018, has had a sustained impact on China's pork market, causing pork prices to rise sharply, breaking through the highest historical value. By selecting monthly data from January 2001 to March 2020, and using the ARCH family model, the clustering, high risk, high return and asymmetry of pork price fluctuations. By using Bayesian VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposed, the impact of corn price, per capita disposable income of town residents, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and the pig epidemic index on pork prices are studied. The conclusion is that the pork price conditional variance has volatility ``cluster" phenomenon; pork price has the characteristics of high risk and high return; ``good news" can bring greater fluctuations than ``bad news". Corn prices and exchange rate levels have a strong positive effect on pork prices, disposable income has a weak positive effect on pork prices, and a pig epidemic has a strong negative effect on pork prices. From the largest to the smallest, the contribution rate to the fluctuation of pork price is itself, the exchange rate level, the disposable income level of urban residents, the corn price and the pig epidemic index. Finally, the corresponding solutions are proposed.