Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1
Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 391-402.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2020.04.001

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The Early Transmission Characteristics of Corona Virus Disease 2019 Based on the Reaction Diffusion Equation in Wuhan

GUO Zun-guang1,2,3,  LI Ming-tao4,  CHANG Li-li5,6,  ZHANG Juan5,6,  LIANG Juan1,2,3,  XING Guo-rong5,6,  ZHANG Wei5,6,  SUN Gui-quan3,5,6   

  1. 1- Data Science and Technology, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051
    2- Department of Science, Taiyuan Institute of Technology, Taiyuan 030008
    3- School of Science, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051
    4- College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024
    5- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006
    6- Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006
  • Received:2020-04-21 Accepted:2020-06-08 Online:2020-08-15 Published:2020-10-15
  • Contact: G. Sun. E-mail address: gquansun@126.com
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (11671241; 11801398); the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province (201901D111322); the Program for the (Reserved) Discipline Leaders of Taiyuan Institute of Technology (201808); the Natural Science Foundation of Taiyuan Institute of Technology (2016LZ02).

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Abstract: The paper researches the early transmission characteristics of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Wuhan based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) spatial reaction diffusion model. In terms of the open data published by China CDC and Wuhan Health Committee, the least square formula of reaction diffusion equation is proposed, then the parameter estimation of the infection rate is calculated by the least square method and the optimal values of model parameters are obtained. The model simulates the spatial transmission of the infected and potential patients from December 8, 2019 to January 5, 2020 showing that the disease will develop from single point outbreak to multi-point infection. In the meantime, the number of patients in fixed space will increase with the spread. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of diffusion rate and infection rate reveals that the cumulative number of the infected will increase with the increase of infection rate and diffusion rate, the sensitivity of infection rate is greater than that of diffusion rate. Therefore, for the emergent infectious diseases, timely source cutting-off of infection and effective reduction of infection rate are good measures to the prevention and control to further spread of infectious diseases. For example, the measures of early discovery, early isolation and home isolation, social distance increasing and masks wearing in the outside can effectively reduce the number of the infected.

Key words: new coronavirus pneumonia, reaction diffusion equation, quarantine, parameter estimation

CLC Number: