Abstract: It is the key link of establishing a unified agricultural land trading market, which is accurately evaluated the trading behavior of the transferors of agricultural land management right and effectively restrain the herding effect in agricultural land management right trading. Based on the individual rationality constraint of the agricultural land transfer, this paper establishes a sequential decision-marking mathematical statistical model, with the discrete behavior of two-dimensional uncertain signals as the spatial hypothesis. The process and mechanism of herd effect in the process of agricultural land transaction are discussed, and the generation of herd effect under different conditions is simulated. It is found that the herding effect of land transfer in agricultural land transaction is related to the possibility of obtaining information and signal. The main reason for herd behavior in agricultural land transaction is that the information is not transparent and accurate, which leads to a small probability of obtaining signals and makes it difficult for the transferors to judge the authenticity of the information.

Key words: agricultural land trading market, division of three powers, herd effect, a two-dimensional signal