Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 17-38.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2024.01.002

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The Impact of Self-exciting Jump Process for the Short Term Model with Stochastic Volatility

ZHANG Xinjun1,  JIANG Liang2,  LIN Qi2,  SONG Liping3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Financial Mathematics of Fujian Province University, Putian University, Putian 351100;
    2. Fujian Key Laboratory of Financial Information Processing, Putian University, Putian 351100;
    3. Key Laboratory of Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province University, Putian University, Putian 351100
  • Received:2021-03-24 Accepted:2021-07-30 Online:2024-02-15 Published:2024-04-15
  • Contact: L. Jiang. E-mail address: ptjliang@163.com
  • Supported by:
    The Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (2020J01907; 2021J011102); the Social Science Foundation of Fujian Province (FJ2018B065).

Abstract:

The stochastic volatility and self--exciting jump process are incorporated into a short-rate model. In the model, the self-exciting jump process will modeled by a Hawkes process, which captures the jump cluster. The expansion of the differential operator is applied to compute the closed-form moment function, and further develop the general moment method to estimate the parameters in the model and make statistical inference. The empirical results provide that there is no enough evidence to support the goodness of fit test. But the model with Hawkes process is significance in statistics, and  could strongly capture the jump clustering. Finally, the filtered values are estimated for the stochastic volatility, jump size, jump probability and intensity of jump by using filtering method. It is worth mention that the filtered jump probability is a plausible indicator to measure financial market stress.

Key words: short term model, stochastic volatility, jump clustering, Hawkes process

CLC Number: