Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 838-852.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2024.05.004

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Uncertainty Modeling of Wind Power Data and Its Application in Power Grid Planning

ZHANG Chunxia1,  JIN Wending1,  CUI Yukun1,  WANG Yongjun2,  YE Tian1   

  1. 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049
    2. School of Artificial Intelligence, Wenzhou Polytechnic, Wenzhou 325035
  • Received:2023-09-28 Accepted:2024-04-14 Online:2024-10-15
  • Contact: Y. Wang. E-mail address: wangyjmcvti@qq.com
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (12371512); the Key Science and Technology Innovation Project of Wenzhou (ZG2022012).

Abstract:

With the rapid economic development of China, the usage of mineral resources continues to grow and pollution of the environment is also increasing. As a result, it is an important measure for China to develop wind power generation so as to realize low-carbon transformation. However, due to the strong instability of wind power generation, it brings greater uncertainty to the operation of the power grid. Therefore, this paper takes into account the uncertainty in the wind power generation process and models them to carry out the power grid planning. Firstly, this paper establishes a mathematical model of wind turbine output by modeling the uncertainty. Secondly, it proposes an optimal power flow model considering the uncertainty of wind power with the objective to simultaneously minimize the total cost and the total network loss. At the same time, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the problem by using a local model and introducing dynamic inertia weight coefficients. By comparing it with the traditional particle swarm optimization algorithm with some real-world data, the novel algorithm is verified to have better performance in terms of solving speed, convergence and robustness.

Key words: generation uncertainty, Monte Carlo method, optimal power flow, improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, power grid planning

CLC Number: