Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 983-990.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2025.05.014

Previous Articles    

The Study on Characteristics of Asymptomatic Patients of COVID-19 in China Based on Change-point Models

SUN Zhiguo1,  JIN Hao1,2,  SU Menglin1   

  1. 1. School of Science, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710600

    2. School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710600

  • Received:2023-03-08 Accepted:2023-09-18 Online:2025-10-15 Published:2025-12-15
  • Contact: H. Jin. E-mail address: jinhao_2004@126.com
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (71473194); the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Provincial Science and Technology Department (2020JM513).

Abstract:

Based on the data released by the National Health Commission on the total number of COVID-19 patients and the number of asymptomatic patients from December 12, 2021 to December 12, 2022, this paper discusses the evolving trend of the proportion of asymptomatic patients in the total number of COVID-19 patients. Using the mean multiple point model and binary segmentation method, the Ratio test statistic is introduced and the Block Bootstrap method is used to empirically analyze the fluctuation law of the observed data. The results showed that the proportion of asymptomatic infections in the total number of COVID-19 infections showed a significant upward trend, with high volatility and high jump characteristics. According to the multiple change point location estimation method, the data is divided into five stages. On this basis, the mechanism between the data changes and the types of infected strains, temperature, regional policies and other factors at different stages was explored.

Key words: COVID-19, number of asymptomatic patients, multivariable mean changes model, change point test, Block Bootstrap

CLC Number: