Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 763-778.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2023.05.006

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Grey ${\rm GM}(2,1)$ Model with Complex Solution and Its Applications

CHENG Maolin   

  1. School of Mathematical Sciences, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009
  • Received:2022-02-18 Accepted:2022-07-08 Online:2023-10-15 Published:2023-12-15
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (11401418).

Abstract:

${\rm GM}(2,1)$ model is an important model in grey system prediction, but sometimes the solution of its whitening equation is complex, resulting in the predicted value of time series is complex, then we can use the distance between its mode and the actual value to reflect the size of its error. In order to improve the modeling accuracy, an extended grey ${\rm GM}(2,1)$ model is proposed in this paper, and the prediction method of complex time response equation and parameter estimation method are given. According to the model and method proposed in this paper, an extended grey ${\rm GM}(2,1)$ model is established for China's per capita GDP and China's private car ownership respectively, and compared with conventional methods and relevant literature methods. The results show that the improved method in this paper has the highest accuracy. The method presented in this paper is helpful to the generalization and application of grey ${\rm GM}(N,1)$ model.

Key words: ${\rm GM}(2,1)$ model, complex solutions, parameter estimation, time response equation, model accuracy

CLC Number: