Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1
Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics

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Analysis and Evaluation of the Impact of Tracking Quarantine Measures and Nucleic Acid Test on COVID-19 in Nanjing

WANG Kai1,2,  LI Huixia1,3,  LI Yun1,3,  ZHAO Hongyong1,3   

  1. 1. School of Mathematics, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106;
    2. Guangzhou Center for Applied Mathematics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006;
    3. Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modelling and High Performance Computing of Air Vehicles (NUAA), MIIT, Nanjing 211106
  • Received:2021-10-12 Accepted:2022-06-02 Online:2024-06-15 Published:2024-06-15
  • Contact: H. Zhao. E-mail address: hyzho1967@126.com
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (11971013; 12101309); the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (2023M740801; 2021M691577); the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF\,(GZC20230589); the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX20_0169).

Abstract:

In July 2021, a Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Delta mutant virus broke out in Nanjing. Based on the actual data published by Nanjing Health Commission, we propose a time-dependent COVID-19 epidemic model. Applying the data to estimate the parameters of the model and calculate the effective reproduction number, and then the quarantine and prevention measures and the intensity of nucleic acid test are analyzed and evaluated. The conclusion shows that the intensity of quarantine and nucleic acid test have an important impact on prevention and control of epidemic. The results of this study promote the research on the transmission dynamics modeling and analysis of COVID-19 to a certain extent, and have certain reference significance for dealing with sudden infectious diseases in the future.

Key words: COVID-19, epidemic model, effective reproduction number, parameter estimation, isolation and nucleic acid test

CLC Number: