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中国工业与应用数学学会会刊
主管：中华人民共和国教育部
主办：西安交通大学
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1
工程数学学报

工程数学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 622-634.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2018.06.002

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基于比率估计量的人口普查内容误差估计

胡桂华1,   漆   莉2,   吴   婷1,   廖金盆1   

  1. 1- 重庆工商大学数学与统计学院及重庆经济和社会应用统计重点实验室，重庆  400067
    2- 重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心，重庆  400067
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-09 接受日期:2018-01-29 出版日期:2018-12-15 发布日期:2019-02-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(11471239)；全国统计科学研究重点项目(2016LZ29)；重庆市社会科学规划重大委托项目(2016WT03)；重庆高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(17SKG088)；重庆工商大学2017年度科研平台开放课题(KFJJ2017067).

Error Estimation of Census Content Based on Ratio Estimators

HU Gui-hua1,   QI Li2,   WU Ting1,   LIAO Jin-pen1   

  1. 1- School of Mathematics and Statistics and Chongqing Key Laboratory on Economic and Social Application Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067
    2- Economic Research Center of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067
  • Received:2017-10-09 Accepted:2018-01-29 Online:2018-12-15 Published:2019-02-15
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (11471239); the Key Foundation of National Statistical Scientific Research (2016LZ29); the Social Science Planning Major Foundation of Chongqing (2016WT03); the Key Foundation of Humanities and Social Science Research of Colleges and Universities of Chongqing (17SKG088); the Open Course of Research Platform of Chongqing Technology and Business University (KFJJ2017067).

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摘要： 目前许多国家的政府统计部门普遍重视覆盖误差估计，而轻视甚至取消内容误差估计．为改变这一状况，本文采用抽样估计、现场核实的研究方法率先系统地研究用于估计人口普查内容误差的一致性率、净差异率、不一致指数、总不一致指数这四个测评指标．首先，使用样本普查小区的人口普查人口登记名单、质量评估调查人口登记名单、两者的匹配人口登记名单，以及样本普查小区的抽样权数构造每个测评指标的估计量及其基于刀切法的抽样方差估计量．其次，通过实际案例演示测评指标的计算过程．最后，给出研究结论：每个测评指标并未覆盖全部内容误差；提高匹配性比对环节的工作质量是保证内容误差评估准确性的关键；进行内容误差横向、纵向比对时，要注意其可比性．本文能优化政府统计部门的人口普查质量评估方案，提高普查内容误差估计精度．

关键词: 人口普查, 人口普查质量评估, 人口普查误差, 人口普查内容误差

Abstract: At present, departments of government statistics in many countries generally pay attention to coverage error estimation, but neglect or even eliminate content error estimation. In order to improve this situation, this paper is the first to systematically study the four evaluation indexes through sampling estimation and field verification, namely, consistency rate, net difference rate, inconsistency index, and total inconsistency index, which are used to estimate census content errors. First, the census population registration list, the quality assessment survey population registration list, the matched population registration list from the same small census area, and the sampling weights of the sample small census areas are used to construct the estimator of each evaluation index and its sampling variance estimator based on the Jack-knife method. Secondly, the calculation processes of evaluation indicators are demonstrated through a real case. Finally, the conclusion of the study is given: each evaluation index does not cover all content errors; improving the quality of matching work is the key to ensure the accuracy of content error assessment; we should pay attention to the comparability of horizontal and vertical comparison of content errors. This paper can optimize the census quality evaluation scheme of government statistics department, and improve the accuracy of census content error estimation.

Key words: population census, census quality evaluation, census error, census content error

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