在线咨询
中国工业与应用数学学会会刊
主管：中华人民共和国教育部
主办：西安交通大学
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1
工程数学学报

工程数学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1087-1097.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2024.06.007

• • 上一篇    下一篇

传染病动力学在黑龙江省新冠疫情防控中的应用

王晶囡,  夏晓峰,   张鸿鹏   

  1. 哈尔滨理工大学理学院，哈尔滨 150080
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-21 接受日期:2022-11-18 出版日期:2024-12-15 发布日期:2024-12-15
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省自然科学基金 (LH2022A022; LH2020A015)；哈尔滨理工大学大学生创新项目 (202110214271).

Application of Infectious Disease Dynamics in Prevention and Control of COVID-19 in Heilongjiang Province

WANG Jingnan,   XIA Xiaofeng,   ZHANG Hongpeng   

  1. School of Science, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080
  • Received:2022-03-21 Accepted:2022-11-18 Online:2024-12-15 Published:2024-12-15
  • Supported by:
    The Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (LH2022A022; LH2020A015); the College Student Innovation Project of Harbin University of Science and Technology (202110214271).

摘要：

利用微分方程建立了新冠状传染病动力学模型，证明了传染病动力学模型的平衡点的存在性和稳定性。基于黑龙江省卫健委公布的疫情数据，对模型参数做最小二乘估计并将所估参数代入模型，进行了拟合比较。预测了黑龙江省第三次疫情的发展趋势，根据所得理论，提出了有效防控新冠疫情复发的策略。

关键词: COVID-19, 平衡点, 稳定性, 疫苗免疫, 传染病动力学模型

Abstract: In this paper, a dynamic model of new coronary infectious disease is established by using differential equations. The existence and stability of equilibria are proved. Based on the epidemic data published by the Health Commission of Heilongjiang Province, the model parameters are estimated by the least-squares algorithm. In addition, the estimated parameters are substituted into the model for fitting comparison. The development of the third COVID-19 epidemic in Heilongjiang province is predicted. The effective strategies for prevention and control of the recurrence of COVID-19 are proposed.

Key words: COVID-19, stability, equilibrium, vaccine immunization, dynamic model of infectious disease

中图分类号: