Association Journal of CSIAM
Supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC
Sponsored by Xi'an Jiaotong University
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 357-378.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2022.03.002

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Temperature Modeling and Weather Derivative Pricing with Forward-looking Information---A Case Study of Zhengzhou

LI Peng1,   NIU Zhikang1,   ZHONG Weizhou2,3   

  1. 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046 
    2. School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061 
    3. Shaanxi College of Socialism, Xi'an 710061
  • Online:2022-06-15 Published:2022-08-15
  • Supported by:
    The Key Scientific Research Project for Universities in Henan Province (19A110023).

Abstract:

Through incorporating forward-looking information, this paper constructs a consistent two-factor temperature model for Zhengzhou, and prices weather derivatives based on the model. First, we analyze the historical weather forecast data, and verify the rationality of the consistent two-factor model. Using the historical temperature data and historical temperature forecast data of Zhengzhou, we then construct a consistent two-factor model and derive the approximate pricing formulas with the market price of risk extracted from utility indifference valuation. In the end, we apply Monte Carlo simulations to compute the price surface for temperature options. This paper presents a complete pricing procedure based on a consistent two-factor temperature model, and is of both theoretical and practical significance for weather risk management and the development of China's weather derivative markets.

Key words: weather derivative, consistent two-factor model, utility indifference, market price of risk, forward-looking information

CLC Number: