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中国工业与应用数学学会会刊
主管:中华人民共和国教育部
主办:西安交通大学
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1

工程数学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 637-652.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2021.05.004

• • 上一篇    下一篇

人口普查微观记录样本代表性研究

胡桂华,   迟璐婕   

  1. 重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆 400067
  • 出版日期:2021-10-15 发布日期:2021-12-15
  • 基金资助:
    重庆市社会科学规划项目 (2020WT24);教育部人文社会科学研究项目 (20YJA910002);2021 年重庆市教育委员会规划项目 (21SKGH111).

Representative Research on Census Micro-records Sample

HU Guihua,   CHI Lujie   

  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067
  • Online:2021-10-15 Published:2021-12-15
  • Supported by:
    The Chongqing Social Science Planning Item (2020WT24); the Humanities and Social Science Research Project of the Ministry of Education (20YJA910002); 2021 Chongqing Education Commission Planning Item (21SKGH111).

摘要:

每次人口普查之后,各国政府统计部门发布人口普查数据开发利用课题,以期最大限度地发挥普查数据在社会、经济发展中的作用.政府统计部门往往只提供课题中标者课题研究所需要的样本普查微观记录.如果样本普查微观记录对总体普查微观记录缺少代表性,就会得出错误的分析结论.很少学者或政府统计部门的有关人员关注普查微观记录样本的代表性,表现在直接利用普查微观记录得出统计分析结论.针对这一问题,本文以美国明尼苏达大学人口中心建立的 IPUMS 数据库为数据来源,采用分层二重抽样方法构造男女人数线性估计量、比率估计量及其抽样方差估计量,研究中国重庆市 2000 年 1% 样本普查微观记录的代表性.研究结果表明:估计男女人数的线性估计量和比率估计量服从或渐近服从正态分布;普查微观记录样本代表性大;所有置信区间均包括了相应的真值,估计结果接近真值,估计精度较高.本文有助于学者关注和研究普查微观记录样本代表性,在利用普查微观记录进行统计分析之前,检验其代表性;为普查数据用户决策是否使用或在多大程度上使用普查数据提供科学依据.

关键词: 抽样调查, 人口普查, 抽样方差

Abstract:

After each census, the governmental statistical departments of various countries issue items on the development and utilization of census data, in order to maximize the role of census data in social and economic development. The governmental statistical department often only provides item's successful bidders with the sample census micro-records. If the sample census micro-records are not representative of those of the population, the wrong analysis conclusions will be drawn. Few scholars or relevant personnel of governmental statistical departments pay attention to the representativeness of the sample census micro-records, which is reflected in the direct use of the census micro-records to draw statistical analysis conclusions. To solve this problem, the IPUMS database established by the Population Center of the Uni-versity of Minnesota is applied as the data source, the stratified double sampling method is adopted to construct the linear estimator, the ratio estimator and their sampling variance estimators of the number of men and women, the representativeness of 1% sample micro-records in Chongqing, China in 2000 is studies. The research results show that the linear estimator and the ratio estimator estimating the numbers of men and women obey or asymptotically obey the normal distribution, and the sample census micro-records are representative. Moreover, all the confidence intervals include the corresponding true value, and the estimated results are close to the true value, the estimation precision is high. This work helps scholars pay attention to and study the representativeness of the sample census micro-records, and test their representativeness before using sample census micro-records for statistical analysis. Also, it provides scientific basis for census data users to decide whether or to what extent to use census data.

Key words: sampling survey, population census, sampling variance

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