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中国工业与应用数学学会会刊
主管：中华人民共和国教育部
主办：西安交通大学
ISSN 1005-3085  CN 61-1269/O1
工程数学学报

工程数学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 217-231.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3085.2024.02.002

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追踪隔离措施与核酸检测力度对南京新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响的分析与评估

王  凯1,2,  李慧霞1,3,  李  云1,3,  赵洪涌1,3   

  1. 1. 南京航空航天大学数学学院，南京 211106;
    2. 广州大学应用数学研究中心，广州 510006;
    3. 飞行器数学建模与高性能计算工业和信息化部重点实验室 (南京航空航天大学)，南京 211106
  • 收稿日期:2021-10-12 接受日期:2022-06-02 出版日期:2024-04-15 发布日期:2024-06-15
  • 通讯作者: 赵洪涌 E-mail: hyzho1967@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金 (11971013; 12101309)；中国博士后科学基金 (2023M740801; 2021M691577)；国家资助博士后研究人员计划 (GZC20230589)；江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目基金 (KYCX20_0169).

Analysis and Evaluation of the Impact of Tracking Quarantine Measures and Nucleic Acid Test on COVID-19 in Nanjing

WANG Kai1,2,  LI Huixia1,3,  LI Yun1,3,  ZHAO Hongyong1,3   

  1. 1. School of Mathematics, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106;
    2. Guangzhou Center for Applied Mathematics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006;
    3. Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modelling and High Performance Computing of Air Vehicles (NUAA), MIIT, Nanjing 211106
  • Received:2021-10-12 Accepted:2022-06-02 Online:2024-04-15 Published:2024-06-15
  • Contact: H. Zhao. E-mail address: hyzho1967@126.com
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (11971013; 12101309); the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (2023M740801; 2021M691577); the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF\,(GZC20230589); the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX20_0169).

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摘要：

2021年7月，南京市爆发由德尔塔变异毒株引起的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情(COVID-19)。依据南京市卫生健康委员会公布的实际数据，建立符合疫情发展的时间依赖COVID-19传播动力学模型，将实时数据应用于模型参数估计和有效再生数计算，分析和评估了此次疫情采取的隔离防控措施和核酸检测强度。结论表明：隔离力度和核酸检测强度对疫情防控有重要影响。该研究结果在一定程度上促进了新型冠状病毒肺炎传播动力学建模与分析工作的研究，对未来应对突发性传染病有一定借鉴意义。

关键词: COVID-19, 传染病动力学模型, 有效再生数, 参数估计, 隔离措施和核酸检测

Abstract:

In July 2021, a Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Delta mutant virus broke out in Nanjing. Based on the actual data published by Nanjing Health Commission, we propose a time-dependent COVID-19 epidemic model. Applying the data to estimate the parameters of the model and calculate the effective reproduction number, and then the quarantine and prevention measures and the intensity of nucleic acid test are analyzed and evaluated. The conclusion shows that the intensity of quarantine and nucleic acid test have an important impact on prevention and control of epidemic. The results of this study promote the research on the transmission dynamics modeling and analysis of COVID-19 to a certain extent, and have certain reference significance for dealing with sudden infectious diseases in the future.

Key words: COVID-19, epidemic model, effective reproduction number, parameter estimation, isolation and nucleic acid test

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